Weekly Market Update

As the shutdown enters its 34th day, and soon to be a new record this week, the biggest event may be in the court room where on Wednesday the Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether Trump’s emergency tariff authority is constitutional. While hearings on the issue will be Wednesday, a decision is most likely…

Treasuries are treading water this morning as another earnings boost in the AI space has equities on the front foot as October ends. Amazon beat earnings yesterday, backed by its cloud business, with that familiar segment leading the equity market higher this morning. Next week should be Jobs Week, but other than ADP and private…

News that China and the US have agreed to a series of trade-related deals, in anticipation of a Thursday meeting between Trump and Xi, has risk markets heading higher as Treasuries back up a bit on the positive news. The devil always lurks in the details of these grandiose announcements, but for now the market…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equities heading higher on the back of a delayed but better-than-expected September CPI report. The cooler inflation numbers seal a rate cut next week and pave the way for another in December. The report was about all the Fed could ask for, but the hawks will…

The shutdown enters its 21st day marking the second longest on record. The record-holding 2018-2019 shutdown appears in danger of falling as Polymarkets is betting it goes well into November and Congressional action on the matter seems lifeless (see graph below). By the way, November 5th would mark a new record. In the meantime, we…