Weekly Market Update

March nonfarm payrolls rose 178 thousand, easily beating the 65 thousand expected and 133 thousand lost in February (revised lower from an initial -92 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 7 thousand jobs from previous estimates with January revised up 34 thousand and February 41 thousand lower. February was marked by weather issues along with a…

Reports that the Iranian President was seeking a resolution to the war led to a furious rally in financial markets yesterday as both Treasuries and equities rallied first and apparently asked questions later. While the war news has and will dominate trading, we were greeted with more reports of so-so consumer confidence and a labor…

We enter what is typically the busiest week of any month as far as first-tier economic data is concerned, but this week the economic data will spar with geo-political developments for investor attention. The Wall Street Journal is reporting plans to put US boots on the ground to extract enriched uranium stockpiles which would point…

The weekend beckons but uncertainty over what may transpire in the Middle East is keeping markets on edge. It’s clear that economic data is taking a backseat to war events, particularly with what that means to energy costs as transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain choked off for the most part. While a risk-off…

Investors continue to focus on the inflation aspect of the war and that contributed to a poor 2yr Treasury auction yesterday, despite a nearly 50bps increase in yields this month. At some point, inflation angst will compete with demand destruction from higher costs which should limit the upward bias of yields, but for now that…

Oil prices tumbled this morning after President Trump said the U.S. and Iran had productive talks, leading him to order a halt on strikes against key energy infrastructure in the country. West Texas Intermediate futureswere down 7% at $91 per barrel. Brent crude lost around 8% as well to trade at $104. Risk-on is the…

Uncertainty created by the war in Iran continues to swirl, and the Fed has decided that it’s best to sit on the sidelines until more is known about the economic impact, and that has investors revisiting their expectations for monetary policy this year. The immediate result of the uncertainty is to price out any rate…

Meeting Highlights As widely anticipated, the Fed left the funds rate unchanged at its target rate range of 3.50% – 3.75%.  The biggest uncertainty heading into the meeting was the updated rate forecast, or dot plot, along with changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). In December, they had the funds rate dropping to…

It’s Wednesday, so that means FOMC Decision Day. While everyone, including us, expect the Fed to pause there’s still plenty to learn from today’s meeting that we delve into below. Also, another piece of the inflation puzzle was revealed today as the February PPI report was released and that means more pieces to fit into…

With the Iran war looming over all aspects of trading, we finish the week with an important, albeit dated, report in the form of January Personal Income and Spending. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the headline feature of the report, but the personal spending numbers will get a once over too given the softening…

With the Iran war looming over all aspects of trading, we finish the week with an important, albeit dated, report in the form of January Personal Income and Spending. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the headline feature of the report, but the personal spending numbers will get a once over too given the softening…

Treasuries have been taking their lead from oil markets this week and yesterday that led to a dizzying roundtrip between losses and gains as news of a US warship successfully escorting a tanker through the Straits of Hormuz brought a relief rally and drop in oil prices.  Then that news was taken down and replaced…