Weekly Market Update

The solid August jobs report from last Friday allows the Fed to focus on its price stability mandate when it meets next week amidst a seemingly stable labor market.  The final pieces of the hike/no hike puzzle should come together this week with PPI Thursday and CPI on Friday. We talk about both reports and…

August nonfarm payrolls rose 162k, easily beating the 55k expected and a nice rebound from the 21k gain in July (revised from an initial -23k loss).  Private sector jobs rose 127k vs. 71k in July.  Two-month revisions added 55k jobs from previous estimates which is a departure from the usual negative revision to jobs.  …

Labor market reports for August are starting to arrive, but the high yield story continues to dominate conversations, while the Iran war shows no signs of abating. Yesterday, the US launched fresh attacks in retaliation for Iran trying to mine the Strait of Hormuz, and as a response to earlier strikes on a US base…

After last week’s full calendar of Jackson Hole, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading, and an update to 2nd quarter GDP, attention shifts to the employment side of the Fed’s mandate with several job-related reports. It must be said, however, that with inflation the current focus of the Fed, and that was made even more clear…

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address central bankers, economists, and journalists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this morning at 10am ET. Investors are hopeful that he’ll be chattier than he has been during his brief tenure as Fed chair.  In a perfect world, markets would like to hear his thinking regarding the reaction function and forward…

A couple key reports arrived this morning with July Personal Income and Spending, including the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, and the second estimate of 2nd quarter GDP. We discuss those reports in detail below. Meanwhile, the fallout from the failed trade negotiations with Canada continues. The Canadians wasted no time in levying retaliatory tariffs…

The subject of higher bond yields moved centerstage last week and given numerous explanations for the move, and a planned Treasury buyback of debt, it’s likely that the topic will continue to foment, discussion, consternation, and market volatility this week. Away from that ongoing dustup, central bankers across the developed economies will gather in Jackson…

The administration’s fiscal and monetary policies were subject to close inspection this week, and it could be the beginning of a new phase in financial markets. First, the US Treasury surprised markets on Wednesday announcing increased buybacks of longer duration bonds to arrest the increase in market yields, or better yet, encourage them lower. Then,…

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting await us this afternoon. I know, riveting stuff. Anyway, with the subsequently released cool July inflation report, weak jobs and retail sales reports, the decision to pause seems validated. The minutes, however, will still provide some insight into how vigorous the hiking debate was, and recall there were…

Inflation week delivered a second straight month of well-behaved prices, and while investors didn’t get too far ahead after one month of cool results in June, the follow-up was enough to move odds of a September rate hike down to just 1-in-3.  That said, we still have August inflation and payroll data to absorb before…

Inflation week delivered a second straight month of well-behaved prices, and while investors didn’t get too far ahead after one month of cool results in June, the follow-up was enough to move odds of a September rate hike down to just 1-in-3.  That said, we still have August inflation and payroll data to absorb before…

The first of the July inflation data arrived this morning with CPI and the results are discussed in more detail below but suffice it to say it was close to expectations which means slightly warmer than the cool June print, but it reduced odds of a September hike to 42% vs. a toss-up which it…