Weekly Market Update

Inflation week certainly lived up to its name and delivered some sobering news on prices.  First, it was CPI, followed by PPI, and yesterday’s Import/Export Prices followed suit with steamy prices that extend beyond energy and energy adjacent goods and services. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, is not due until May 28 and if…

The hotter than expected CPI from April kept Treasuries under pressure yesterday and with more supply and inflation reports yet to come, the bias to higher rates may have more to run. In addition, the CPI report further reduced odds of rate cuts this year. PPI today and Import Prices tomorrow will keep inflation front…

The absence of a peace deal over the weekend has Treasuries on the back foot and equity futures waffling around unchanged levels as the week opens. Friday’s decent jobs report didn’t provide the spark for a Treasury selloff as investors took the headline beat but dug a little deeper to see a slight uptick in…

April nonfarm payrolls rose 115 thousand, easily beating the 65 thousand expected but less than the 185 thousand gained in March (revised higher from an initial 178 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 16 thousand jobs from previous estimates. The March bounce wasn’t entirely surprising given February weather issues along with a healthcare worker strike, so…

Equity futures are trading higher, and bond yields and oil lower, with word of a possible deal to end the Iran war, but details, as always, are difficult to flesh out but that’s what has markets moving early today. Meanwhile, as we wait for the Friday jobs report we received plenty of April data yesterday…

This week brings the first substantial batch of April data after being teased on Friday with ISM Manufacturing. That report will be followed by the Services Survey due tomorrow, and of course the big report is the jobs numbers due on Friday. Expectations there are for 60 thousand new jobs and a stable unemployment rate…

This afternoon the FOMC will render an unchanged rate decision, surprising no one, but the real drama will be the post-meeting press conference. With the way now clear for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed him as Fed Chair will Powell declare his time at the Fed done, or will he stay on through the end…

A slew of new information yesterday confirmed what many of us suspected and that is inflationary pressures have arrived and are spreading, and that’s likely to continue amid little breakthrough in the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the consumer and labor market remain resilient to the early bout of inflation pressure but how much longer will…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2026 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState Securities.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

This week will be highlighted by the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, despite the almost universal expectation that they will hold rates steady. The other big event should be the advancement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair now that the DOJ has dropped litigation regarding the Fed’s construction project, and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC)…

Retail sales strength earlier in the week was followed by solid preliminary April PMI numbers yesterday, but a more cautious take was it had more to do with building some safety into inventory levels ahead of possible price hikes and/or supply shortages. Thus, the Iran war and shipping blockage continues to dominate trading and now…

Tuesday was probably peak info day for the week with a Fed confirmation hearing competing with a round of plentiful economic data, and, of course, Middle East news. On that front, Trump’s talk of an open-ended ceasefire has the temperature down, along with oil prices firmly below $100/bbl and that is providing a quiet open….