Weekly Market Update

Just when it looked like the market was ready to move past the Middle East conflict to other matters, the war resumed with renewed vigor. Following an exchange of strikes overnight, President Trump said he believes the MOU/ceasefire with Iran “is over.” Iran said it launched attacks on US military targets in the region in…

After a holiday-shortened week, this one arrives with the summer doldrums dead ahead. The data offerings are thin and decidedly second-tier, so don’t look for any guidance in that direction. The highlight could well be the FOMC minutes from the June 17 meeting with new Fed Chair Warsh presiding. While Warsh worked hard to limit…

June nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 57 thousand, missing the 115 thousand expected and less than the 129 thousand gained in May (revised lower from an initial 172 thousand).   Two-month revisions subtracted 74 thousand jobs from previous estimates. Thus, the May occurrence of an upward revision reverted in June to the more typical downward…

June data is starting to arrive, and it looks like a decent if unspectacular month of economic activity. This week’s reports focus on the labor market with today’s ADP Employment Change Report and the ISM Manufacturing Index and its employment measure. Also, the JOLTS report from yesterday provided the first look at the labor market…

With a holiday-shortened week ahead, it doesn’t leave much time to cover the plethora of reporting that we’re about to receive, not to mention the on-again, off-again peace deal with Iran. Now that the weekend is over, peace is on again, which seems to be the pattern in this war. Anyway, back to matters economic….

We wrote on Wednesday about the sudden heavy selling in some of the darlings of the equity world and whether it marked the beginning of something more ominous. However, with an earnings and forward guidance beat by one of those darlings, Micron Technologies, the rally resumed and combined with a no surprises PCE update yesterday,…

Some selling in the high flyers of the equity world benefited Treasuries as a flight to safety trade was evident yesterday. The equity selling started in Asia, with the Korean Index down a solid 10%. While selling followed around the globe, it didn’t match the Asian intensity. For now, thoughts that a severe market correction…

The week opens on a somber note with news of the passing of Alan Greenspan at the age of 100. Mr. Greenspan was the most influential Fed Chair of our lifetimes, and he left a legacy at the Fed that will last long after his passing. There will no doubt be plenty written this week…

May nonfarm payrolls rose 172 thousand, easily beating the 85 thousand expected and slightly less than the 179 thousand gained in April (revised higher from an initial 115 thousand).   Two-month revisions added 93 thousand jobs from previous estimates. Compared to the usual downward revisions that’s a huge shift. Also, the May gain marks three…

May data is starting to arrive and so far, it looks like another decent month of economic activity. From this point, the reports will focus on the labor market with today’s ADP Employment Change Report and the ISM Services Index with its employment measure for May. We discuss the findings of the reports below. We…

This week brings the first substantial batch of May data, mostly of the labor market variety. The big report is the jobs numbers due on Friday. Expectations there are for 95 thousand new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3%, the third straight month at that rate. Of course, Middle East events have the…

Yesterday brought a boatload of data points headlined by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. For the month, PCE was a bit cooler than expectations although yearly rates increased. The slightly cooler monthly prints on both headline and core, along with lower oil prices, provided a basis for Treasuries to rally which they held throughout the…