Weekly Market Update

This week brings the first substantial batch of April data after being teased on Friday with ISM Manufacturing. That report will be followed by the Services Survey due tomorrow, and of course the big report is the jobs numbers due on Friday. Expectations there are for 60 thousand new jobs and a stable unemployment rate…

This afternoon the FOMC will render an unchanged rate decision, surprising no one, but the real drama will be the post-meeting press conference. With the way now clear for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed him as Fed Chair will Powell declare his time at the Fed done, or will he stay on through the end…

A slew of new information yesterday confirmed what many of us suspected and that is inflationary pressures have arrived and are spreading, and that’s likely to continue amid little breakthrough in the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the consumer and labor market remain resilient to the early bout of inflation pressure but how much longer will…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2026 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState Securities.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

This week will be highlighted by the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, despite the almost universal expectation that they will hold rates steady. The other big event should be the advancement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair now that the DOJ has dropped litigation regarding the Fed’s construction project, and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC)…

Retail sales strength earlier in the week was followed by solid preliminary April PMI numbers yesterday, but a more cautious take was it had more to do with building some safety into inventory levels ahead of possible price hikes and/or supply shortages. Thus, the Iran war and shipping blockage continues to dominate trading and now…

Tuesday was probably peak info day for the week with a Fed confirmation hearing competing with a round of plentiful economic data, and, of course, Middle East news. On that front, Trump’s talk of an open-ended ceasefire has the temperature down, along with oil prices firmly below $100/bbl and that is providing a quiet open….

While this week is a rather dull one for economic news it highlights that trading will once again be dominated by war news, and the latest there is the US firing on and seizing of an Iranian cargo ship headed towards Iran.  With US officials traveling to Islamabad, Pakistan for another round of talks, the…

Today marks the deadline to file your 2025 tax return, and for all those owing Uncle Sam some more money I imagine at some point today the return will be reluctantly placed in the mailbox, or the send button on the computer grudgingly pressed. Apart from our collective fiscal obligations, the war story continues and…

Despite a March CPI report on Friday, and February PCE inflation and spending data received on Thursday, war developments drove trading and market sentiment last week, just as it’s likely to do this week. The latest on that front is that President Trump said the US will begin a naval blockade of the Strait of…

March nonfarm payrolls rose 178 thousand, easily beating the 65 thousand expected and 133 thousand lost in February (revised lower from an initial -92 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 7 thousand jobs from previous estimates with January revised up 34 thousand and February 41 thousand lower. February was marked by weather issues along with a…

Reports that the Iranian President was seeking a resolution to the war led to a furious rally in financial markets yesterday as both Treasuries and equities rallied first and apparently asked questions later. While the war news has and will dominate trading, we were greeted with more reports of so-so consumer confidence and a labor…