Weekly Market Update

The risk-off selling in AI-related equities that started on Wednesday continued yesterday but the early selling was followed by some dip buying which softened the impact and speaks to the inclination of traders to continue with a theme until it’s obvious the theme has played out. Despite some equivocation in equities yesterday, the flight-to-safety trade…

September inflation data began arriving today with CPI this morning. Results are discussed in more detail below but suffice it to say the monthly core rate rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected with odds of an October rate hike around 44%. Odds were under 20% prior to the report. Fed speak since that FOMC meeting and…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2026 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState Securities.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

Yesterday was another good one for equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices hitting all-time highs, no doubt spurred on by AI-related demand. Fixed income played along too as lower oil prices and increased shipments had some feeling better that the energy shock might be receding. However, this morning some of yesterday’s moves…

While the mediocre September jobs report still allows the Fed to focus on its price stability mandate when it meets later this month, the stable labor market that was touted after August’s surprising strength might be on thinner ice than it appeared a month ago. Thus, it provides one reason for the Fed to wait…

September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k, missing the 85k expected and the 133k in August (revised down from 162k).  Private sector jobs rose 46k vs. 80k expected and 89k in August.  Two-month revisions subtracted 60k jobs from previous estimates which, after a brief reversal in August, returns revisions to the downside which has been the…

A key release arrived this morning with the August Personal Income and Spending report, including the PCE inflation numbers. We discuss the report in more detail below. We also received a couple reports yesterday that saw another drop in consumer confidence, this time from the Conference Board, and a small dip in job openings for…

After last week’s rather light, but eventful calendar, this week provides a bevy of first-tier reports headlined by the September jobs report on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading and an update to 2nd quarter GDP on Wednesday. It must be said, however, that with inflation the current focus of the Fed, price pressure is…

A week that started with a light data calendar managed to find enough not to like and that led to the highest Treasury yields this year and the highest going back 20 years. The hopes for renewed peace negotiations with Iran did not materialize but have shifted to trying to reopen the Strait in some…

The light data calendar allows for headlines from UN speeches and Fed Speak to dominate the week, and so far, while some speeches have been provocative, the Treasury moves have been muted. That’s because oil prices have been well behaved as President Trump talked of renewed peace negotiations/discussions with the Iranians. The President of Iran…

After last week’s obstacle course of a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, rate hike, and subsequent market reaction, this week is slated to be less eventful. The economic calendar is light and limited to second and third tier releases with the real attention getter the slate of Fed speakers. Five are scheduled to speak with three…

With the Fed meeting behind us, and the commencement of a tightening cycle after three years of stable to declining funds rates, investors are right to ask, “How many more?” We attempt to answer that question, as murky as the future may be, below. Now that the big September events have happened, there aren’t many…