Weekly Market Update

We wrote on Wednesday about the sudden heavy selling in some of the darlings of the equity world and whether it marked the beginning of something more ominous. However, with an earnings and forward guidance beat by one of those darlings, Micron Technologies, the rally resumed and combined with a no surprises PCE update yesterday,…

Some selling in the high flyers of the equity world benefited Treasuries as a flight to safety trade was evident yesterday. The equity selling started in Asia, with the Korean Index down a solid 10%. While selling followed around the globe, it didn’t match the Asian intensity. For now, thoughts that a severe market correction…

The week opens on a somber note with news of the passing of Alan Greenspan at the age of 100. Mr. Greenspan was the most influential Fed Chair of our lifetimes, and he left a legacy at the Fed that will last long after his passing. There will no doubt be plenty written this week…

May nonfarm payrolls rose 172 thousand, easily beating the 85 thousand expected and slightly less than the 179 thousand gained in April (revised higher from an initial 115 thousand).   Two-month revisions added 93 thousand jobs from previous estimates. Compared to the usual downward revisions that’s a huge shift. Also, the May gain marks three…

May data is starting to arrive and so far, it looks like another decent month of economic activity. From this point, the reports will focus on the labor market with today’s ADP Employment Change Report and the ISM Services Index with its employment measure for May. We discuss the findings of the reports below. We…

This week brings the first substantial batch of May data, mostly of the labor market variety. The big report is the jobs numbers due on Friday. Expectations there are for 95 thousand new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3%, the third straight month at that rate. Of course, Middle East events have the…

Yesterday brought a boatload of data points headlined by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. For the month, PCE was a bit cooler than expectations although yearly rates increased. The slightly cooler monthly prints on both headline and core, along with lower oil prices, provided a basis for Treasuries to rally which they held throughout the…

Oil and commodity prices fell yesterday, while yields fell also, but little new was learned in the Middle East peace/ceasefire process. Such is life in the financial markets in 2026. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer sentiment yesterday wasn’t good, but it wasn’t as lousy as the University of Michigan numbers so there is that….

An abbreviated trading day is all that stands between us and a long Memorial Day weekend, with the only report left being a final look at consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Expect confirmation of the record-low sentiment print from last week’s preliminary release. Yesterday, we received the first May-based activity report with the…

While this week has been light on new economic data, and frankly not much new on the Middle East front either, yields are becoming the main story. Longer duration yields are moving to near 20yr highs and it’s a global pattern, not just a domestic issue. Today’s highlights will again be limited, with FOMC minutes…

The China Summit is over and with little in the way of substantive wins, the focus this week returns to the Middle East situation. The data calendar obliges by being rather dull, so the market will take direction from the strength or weakness in Treasuries and any new Middle East developments. The highlights for the…

Inflation week certainly lived up to its name and delivered some sobering news on prices.  First, it was CPI, followed by PPI, and yesterday’s Import/Export Prices followed suit with steamy prices that extend beyond energy and energy adjacent goods and services. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, is not due until May 28 and if…