Weekly Market Update

January nonfarm payrolls rose 130 thousand, doubling the 68 thousand expected and 48 thousand gained in December (revised lower from an initial 50 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 17 thousand jobs from previous estimates with November revised 15 thousand lower and December 2 thousand lower. Private sector job growth was 172 thousand which is more…

The brief government shutdown has made this week much more important than originally planned. The delayed January jobs report will be released Wednesday and January CPI will be released on Friday (the 13th no less). That lineup alone would be considerable but add in December Retail Sales tomorrow and we’ll cover plenty of bases, from…

Yesterday brought an array of data that all seemed to line up agreeing that the labor market is taking another step back. Whether it was JOLTS with its significant dip in job openings, initial jobless claims moving decidedly higher, or Revelio Labs reporting 13 thousand jobs lost in January, the message to the Fed is…

The first government shutdown of 2026 lasted all of three days but that was enough to see the BLS delay its releases this week which included the December JOLTS due yesterday and more importantly the January BLS Nonfarm Payrolls due on Friday. The House passed the bill, which funds an array of agencies through September,…

We enter what should be a busy week of labor market data, but the government is in a partial shutdown. Sound familiar? Well, the good news is this shutdown shouldn’t last a month. The House will vote tomorrow on funding bills, and a 2-week extension of DHS funding, that the Senate approved late last week….

President Trump announced he is nominating former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chairman when Jerome Powell’s term expires in May. Warsh comes from Wall Street (Morgan Stanley) but sat on the Fed Board from 2006 to 2011 during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. At that time, I recall Kevin…

Meeting Highlights As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 3.50% – 3.75%, with two Fed governors dissenting (Miran and Waller who wanted a 25bps cut). It’s not really surprising the pair dissented as Miran has done so at every meeting he’s attended, and Waller is still holding out hope that President…

The first FOMC meeting of 2026 concludes today with a rate decision at 2pm ET. Alas, the suspense on this one is nearly nonexistent. The Fed is widely expected to pause rate cuts for the first time since July, with the post-meeting Powell presser the highlight. Questions about his successor and/or the subpoena matter are…

This week will be dominated by the first FOMC meeting of 2026 with a rate decision on Wednesday afternoon (2pm ET). While a rate cutting pause is widely expected, Powell’s post-meeting press conference will certainly get attention and no doubt questions around his successor, and his unusually direct video response to the subpoena matter. We…

This week was dominated by geo-political events, culminating in the President’s address at the annual Davos World Economic Forum. While the issue of Greenland sovereignty was front and center Trump relented on his earlier demand for the island and that allowed some space for improved trading, both equities and fixed income. However, while yields are…

The range trade for the past month was decisively broken yesterday, driven by geopolitical events, and the resolution has been for higher yields as the Greenland dust up rekindled another round of the “Sell America” trade. With Trump scheduled to speak within the next hour at the Davos World Economic Forum, there’s potential for more…

With first-tier economic reports done for a while, and a holiday-shortened week upcoming, there’s little on the horizon that could be identified as a possible catalyst to upset the range trade we’re in. That means more emphasis on potential geopolitical events to upset the apple cart, and, if anything else, this administration knows how to…