Weekly Market Update

After last week’s slow grind higher in yields, the FOMC will highlight a busy week with a rate decision on Wednesday. While expectations are that the Fed will pause and perhaps tee-up a rate hike for the September meeting, new Fed Chair Warsh has shown a willingness to throw convention to the side, so there…

The story this week has been the upward move in interest rates, with most tenors setting yearly highs, and it’s not just a domestic story, as global yields are moving in the same direction (see graph below). There’s a grab bag of reasons for the move and we’ll dive into some of them below.  In…

We mentioned on Monday, with the Fed in its pre-FOMC meeting blackout and a gap in meaningful economic releases, that we’re stuck focusing on Middle East developments and that has certainly been the case. The market continues to treat the escalation of attacks between Iran and the U.S. and rumors that the Houthi militia may…

While we had quite the smorgasbord of information last week, from inflation reports to the new Fed Chair testifying on Capitol Hill for two days, this week offers something a bit less compelling. The Fed has gone into its pre-FOMC meeting blackout, and the calendar is devoid of any consequential releases. Thus, we’re stuck focusing…

Inflation week delivered some surprisingly cool results for June, but investors decided that one month of cool numbers is not enough to jump on the low inflation bandwagon for a few reasons.  First, the CPI beat was so widespread that it seemed as though all the previous trouble spots decided to play nice for a…

The cooler-than-expected June CPI rallied Treasuries yesterday, but there was a bit of hesitancy to run with it as the report had enough head-scratching results that the July CPI report (due 8/12) has already been circled to verify or deny the June results. We discuss more of the June results below, but it has dashed…

Hostilities resumed over the weekend in Iran, and the only good thing to say about that is oil futures are up less than in early March. WTI futures have increased $2.43 to $73.82/bbl, or 3.46% higher, this morning. That’s well off the $100 levels of early March but that obviously assumes a quick return to…

Despite the resumption, or at least increase, in hostilities in and around Iran, the markets are treating the news with less concern/volatility than would have been the case a few months ago. Sure, oil prices have moved up some but the degree to which they’ve moved has been a fraction of what we saw in…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2026 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState Securities.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.1 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $94 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

Just when it looked like the market was ready to move past the Middle East conflict to other matters, the war resumed with renewed vigor. Following an exchange of strikes overnight, President Trump said he believes the MOU/ceasefire with Iran “is over.” Iran said it launched attacks on US military targets in the region in…

After a holiday-shortened week, this one arrives with the summer doldrums dead ahead. The data offerings are thin and decidedly second-tier, so don’t look for any guidance in that direction. The highlight could well be the FOMC minutes from the June 17 meeting with new Fed Chair Warsh presiding. While Warsh worked hard to limit…

June nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 57 thousand, missing the 115 thousand expected and less than the 129 thousand gained in May (revised lower from an initial 172 thousand).   Two-month revisions subtracted 74 thousand jobs from previous estimates. Thus, the May occurrence of an upward revision reverted in June to the more typical downward…