Weekly Market Update

Yesterday brought a boatload of data points headlined by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. For the month, PCE was a bit cooler than expectations although yearly rates increased. The slightly cooler monthly prints on both headline and core, along with lower oil prices, provided a basis for Treasuries to rally which they held throughout the…

Oil and commodity prices fell yesterday, while yields fell also, but little new was learned in the Middle East peace/ceasefire process. Such is life in the financial markets in 2026. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer sentiment yesterday wasn’t good, but it wasn’t as lousy as the University of Michigan numbers so there is that….

An abbreviated trading day is all that stands between us and a long Memorial Day weekend, with the only report left being a final look at consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Expect confirmation of the record-low sentiment print from last week’s preliminary release. Yesterday, we received the first May-based activity report with the…

While this week has been light on new economic data, and frankly not much new on the Middle East front either, yields are becoming the main story. Longer duration yields are moving to near 20yr highs and it’s a global pattern, not just a domestic issue. Today’s highlights will again be limited, with FOMC minutes…

The China Summit is over and with little in the way of substantive wins, the focus this week returns to the Middle East situation. The data calendar obliges by being rather dull, so the market will take direction from the strength or weakness in Treasuries and any new Middle East developments. The highlights for the…

Inflation week certainly lived up to its name and delivered some sobering news on prices.  First, it was CPI, followed by PPI, and yesterday’s Import/Export Prices followed suit with steamy prices that extend beyond energy and energy adjacent goods and services. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, is not due until May 28 and if…

The hotter than expected CPI from April kept Treasuries under pressure yesterday and with more supply and inflation reports yet to come, the bias to higher rates may have more to run. In addition, the CPI report further reduced odds of rate cuts this year. PPI today and Import Prices tomorrow will keep inflation front…

The absence of a peace deal over the weekend has Treasuries on the back foot and equity futures waffling around unchanged levels as the week opens. Friday’s decent jobs report didn’t provide the spark for a Treasury selloff as investors took the headline beat but dug a little deeper to see a slight uptick in…

April nonfarm payrolls rose 115 thousand, easily beating the 65 thousand expected but less than the 185 thousand gained in March (revised higher from an initial 178 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 16 thousand jobs from previous estimates. The March bounce wasn’t entirely surprising given February weather issues along with a healthcare worker strike, so…

Equity futures are trading higher, and bond yields and oil lower, with word of a possible deal to end the Iran war, but details, as always, are difficult to flesh out but that’s what has markets moving early today. Meanwhile, as we wait for the Friday jobs report we received plenty of April data yesterday…

This week brings the first substantial batch of April data after being teased on Friday with ISM Manufacturing. That report will be followed by the Services Survey due tomorrow, and of course the big report is the jobs numbers due on Friday. Expectations there are for 60 thousand new jobs and a stable unemployment rate…

This afternoon the FOMC will render an unchanged rate decision, surprising no one, but the real drama will be the post-meeting press conference. With the way now clear for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed him as Fed Chair will Powell declare his time at the Fed done, or will he stay on through the end…