Correspondent Blog

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2026 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState Securities.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

This week will be highlighted by the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, despite the almost universal expectation that they will hold rates steady. The other big event should be the advancement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair now that the DOJ has dropped litigation regarding the Fed’s construction project, and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC)…

Retail sales strength earlier in the week was followed by solid preliminary April PMI numbers yesterday, but a more cautious take was it had more to do with building some safety into inventory levels ahead of possible price hikes and/or supply shortages. Thus, the Iran war and shipping blockage continues to dominate trading and now…

Tuesday was probably peak info day for the week with a Fed confirmation hearing competing with a round of plentiful economic data, and, of course, Middle East news. On that front, Trump’s talk of an open-ended ceasefire has the temperature down, along with oil prices firmly below $100/bbl and that is providing a quiet open….

While this week is a rather dull one for economic news it highlights that trading will once again be dominated by war news, and the latest there is the US firing on and seizing of an Iranian cargo ship headed towards Iran.  With US officials traveling to Islamabad, Pakistan for another round of talks, the…

Today marks the deadline to file your 2025 tax return, and for all those owing Uncle Sam some more money I imagine at some point today the return will be reluctantly placed in the mailbox, or the send button on the computer grudgingly pressed. Apart from our collective fiscal obligations, the war story continues and…

Despite a March CPI report on Friday, and February PCE inflation and spending data received on Thursday, war developments drove trading and market sentiment last week, just as it’s likely to do this week. The latest on that front is that President Trump said the US will begin a naval blockade of the Strait of…

March nonfarm payrolls rose 178 thousand, easily beating the 65 thousand expected and 133 thousand lost in February (revised lower from an initial -92 thousand).   Two-month revisions cut 7 thousand jobs from previous estimates with January revised up 34 thousand and February 41 thousand lower. February was marked by weather issues along with a…

Reports that the Iranian President was seeking a resolution to the war led to a furious rally in financial markets yesterday as both Treasuries and equities rallied first and apparently asked questions later. While the war news has and will dominate trading, we were greeted with more reports of so-so consumer confidence and a labor…

We enter what is typically the busiest week of any month as far as first-tier economic data is concerned, but this week the economic data will spar with geo-political developments for investor attention. The Wall Street Journal is reporting plans to put US boots on the ground to extract enriched uranium stockpiles which would point…

The weekend beckons but uncertainty over what may transpire in the Middle East is keeping markets on edge. It’s clear that economic data is taking a backseat to war events, particularly with what that means to energy costs as transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain choked off for the most part. While a risk-off…

Investors continue to focus on the inflation aspect of the war and that contributed to a poor 2yr Treasury auction yesterday, despite a nearly 50bps increase in yields this month. At some point, inflation angst will compete with demand destruction from higher costs which should limit the upward bias of yields, but for now that…